Sunday, June 24, 2012

Can the GOP Win It All?

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Is it possible that the GOP can win the presidency and the Senate while holding the House? Yes.

Romney is running a nice campaign, hitting back at the Obama campaign on each and every point raised and doing it rapidly. They've managed to keep the president off balance and unless we see a major turnaround in the economy, Obama will likely have one hell of an uphill battle.

In the House, the idea that Democrats can win even half the seats needed is difficult to imagine. While congress currently wallows in historically low approval numbers, they are mired equally. This could change if the Bush tax cuts and other economic concerns drag on and decisions aren't reached. Nate Silver discusses this today.

But what about the Senate? Could large turnout and an energized base help the GOP win in states like Florida and Virginia? Possibly. Real Clear Politics has the Dems with the advantage but there are 8 tossups and one likely GOP pick up in Nebraska of an open seat. Of those eight tossups, only 2 are Republicans and of those, Tester and McCaskill are very winnable. If Elizabeth (Fauxcahontas) Warren keeps running the worst race ever, Scott  Brown will hold his seat.

A great deal can happen in the next few months but the possibility exists that a GOP ass-whipping could occur and that would give a President Romney 24-months to start undoing the damage inflicted over the last three and a half years.

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