Saturday, October 27, 2012

How Sandy Can Affect the Election

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Sandy's gonna be a bitch and she's gonna stick around a little while making life miserable for pretty much everyone from DC to Boston. How could affect the outcome of the presidential election?

Let's suppose there's widespread power loss through the northeast. Let's further suppose that it takes three, four or even seven days to get power back on. People will want to blame someone and the easiest person will be Obama. No, it wont be Obama's fault but Katrina wasn't Bush's either and he was stained from that until he left office.

Let's discuss a couple of hypotheticals:

Romney will have the luxury of not being in a place of power and thus unable to help in any way. Yet he will be able to visit damaged areas and look presidential while critiquing Obama's actions. The media will side with Obama but he will get the blame. Add to that the fact that the last areas to get power back will be suburban and rural areas where more Republicans and undecideds live. The longer they go with power, the more pissed they'll be and the the more likely to go Romney. This will be especially important in Pennsylvania where the Philly suburbs such as Chester, Montgomery and Bucks and more rural counties like Pike and Lancaster may help swing the state to Romney--a state currently leaning Obama.

What about the rest of the nation watching the pictures of devastation from massive flooding? Will that affect votes?

This will not have an affect on MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI or ME since they are firmly for the president but it may swing some popular votes Romney's way.

Scenario two:

Power is out for long periods and electronic voting machines cannot be used in many rural areas. How does that play out? Is it legal for electronic voting machines to be used in Philadelphia when they can't be used in Potter County? That's a state decision and Governor Corbett will be scrutinized whatever way he chooses to go.

What about absentee ballots? Travel is going to be restricted for a few days and the US Postal system is not what it once was. Will an extension be granted?

This is uncharted territory and could swing this election after a year of hard campaigning (or in Obama's case, four years). Next week will be downright surreal.

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