Election Prediction

This is tough as the polls are so damned screwed up that we're essentially blind. I imagine that McCain will win Florida, Virginia (a huge supposition) and North Carolina and Obama will win Colorado and New Mexico. That leave the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Ohio. These states are too damn fluid right about now. How will the coal comments play or what effect will Murtha's comment about Pennsy folks being racist and redneck have? What about Obama's clinger" comments?

Pennsy shakes out this way: An enormous turnout in Philly is a must for Obama. The questions remain; will African-Americans show up as the track record says no but there's never been a black man running before. Plus, will white union members vote for Obama? Again, an unknown. I'm going to call PA for McCain.

Ohio is a different animal. Where PA has two major cities, Ohio has more and the urban vote is a liberal one. If McCain can harvest those who may just be hearing about the coal comments, he may well pull it out.

I tend to be with Ed on this one, I like McCain in a squeaker. Allah begs to differ.