Monday, October 06, 2008

This Race Ain't Over

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With 29 days remaining, the race for the White House is far from a sure thing. Yes, Obama is leading in every poll and yes, the media is in the tank for him but there's a large constituency in this country that hasn't been heard from.

Consider this: Most polls are a small sampling of no more than 3,000 people. There's entirely too many issues to be taken into account to rely on a sample so small as to be insignificant as people vote for their interests and issues that matter to them. LGF notes that William Saletan fell into that trap eight years ago

I've written before that I'm sensing and seeing something the polls aren't showing and that's strong labor union support that has always carried hardcore union states for the Dems. Yes Obama will have the teachers but what of the laborers, equipment operators, masons, electricians, carpenters, iron workers and dock builders? I work with these guys (and have a contract with some of them) and anecdotal evidence says that there's no way in hell they'll support Obama. The locals will say the right words but when it comes time to step in that booth, they will not go Obama in numbers they did when Kerry and Gore ran. Why? He's shady, he doesn't connect with them, he comes off as way more liberal than the last three Dems who ran and lastly because he's black.

The next reason is the Palin Effect. I don't think it's been felt yet but unaffiliated women love Palin. She's beating the boys but not in the way Hillary did with a club and a stanchion but with a smile, wink and a quick wit. She's coming off as if she's having fun and enjoying this race while Obama and even McCain look beat up. Add to that the newly unleashed rhetoric and you have the makings of a rekindled love that was nearly squashed by the MSM while McCain hid her in a cave. She's likable and can be self deprecating while still seeming happy and buoyant. In other words, she's damn confident in who she is

Finally, McCain is going hard after Obama for his past associations--a strategy I think they had from the beginning. In this respect, McCain has allowed the media to play into his hands. In their circle the wagons mentality with regard to Obama, they've kept major stories from reaching the ears of Independents and undecideds. Ayers, Rezko and even Wright may be new stories to these people and may spark new outrage. Obama can't survive if this is the case.I don't put as much stock in the "Bradley Effect" as Democrats do but there's definitely something to it. Many Independent's and Democrat's--those who Obama needs--may well tell a pollster they like Obama and not be able to bring themselves to vote for him given the choice in front of them in the booth. We've seen that in Philly just in reverse when the White guy was trounced by the African-American even though polls showed a closer race.

Anyway, buck up, y'all. It's the most-crucial month for this republic since 2000 and we need a strong effort to get McCain/Palin the win. With a war winding down and another still hot, we need a strong leader who can get us to the finish line. We need sane economic choices involving tax cuts and controlled spending, not higher taxes and new entitlement programs. This is crunch time for the country and a McCain/Palin loss would send us into a tailspin

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