Sunday, February 10, 2008

Bad News for the Dems: Obama Surges

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Obama won big yesterday to regain the momentum in the Democratic campaign for the nomination:

The results in Washington and Nebraska vindicated Obama’s strategy of preparing expensive efforts to organize votes after the Feb. 5 contests that many expected — wrongly — effectively to decide the race.

Clinton’s campaign, meanwhile, played down its own efforts in the states, though she did air television ads in both Washington and Nebraska.Obama also won in Louisiana, buoyed by taking nearly 90 percent of the support of black voters, according to exit polls. And he won overwhelmingly in the U.S. Virgin Islands, winning all three of the territory’s pledged delegates.
It's all going to come down to the super delegates, career politicians and cronies of the establishment politicos like the Clintons. Obama has to win and win big so that the super delegates cannot pull any shenanigans and install Hillary as the nominee. Should Obama lead in both delegates and states won come convention time, Hillary's machine would have a much more difficult time in making the case for her to win the nomination.

think it may well be dawning on the Democrat party that the only candidate who can win is Obama against John McCain and perhaps that will help him with the super delegates but the Clintons can call in a hell of a lot of markers amassed during their eight-year reign. That means we're looking at one volatile convention, one in which the Clinton machine will exert great pressure on those who owe them two (or eight) favors.

Supposing that does happen and the Clintons can pull it out, the Democratic party would be shattered into two or more coalitions that would force a schism that would take years to mend. Think about it: Clinton gets installed as the nominee at the convention in spite Obama's numbers, she would have to offer him the V.P. slot, which he would surely decline. The Obama supporters would then not show up on election day and Hillary would get creamed by McCain.

In other words, we are seeing easily the most important days in the recent history of the Democratic party. What happens in the next six months will dictate what the course of the party will be and if it goes the direction of Hillary, the party would be in massive disarray. As a Republican, I couldn't be even a little bit happier.

Update: Related thoughts here.

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