So the Cauci are over and after the millions spent by each candidate, we learned something in one race and nothing in another.
Let's start with the former--the Democrats. Barack Obama ran a surprisingly strong campaign in the last few months. He stayed on message and learned from past mistakes. It difficult for a candidate under the scrutiny he's been under to go for weeks, let alone months as he has and not make any sizable faux pas. He's not made a mistake like Hillary did the other day when discussing Musharraf as an example. That says something about him as a candidate and something about the staff he's amassed. There's passion in the eyes of the Obama supporters and that has been sorely lacking of late.
Which brings us to Hillary. Her implosion in Iowa--and make no mistake, it was an implosion--tells us how she'll play to Midwestern states and it evidently was a bad performance. This was theater for Hillary and she came off as bad at it as Paris Hilton. She put her pre-packaged image out to voters and they responded with a tepid showing. The campaign spent a huge amount of shekels and got nothing but third for it--a third place that is not quite fatal but is a major indicator of how she's appealed to those in the flyover states.
Edwards also had built a huge organization and has had a presence in the Hawkeye state for years. To be nearly eight points down after his efforts has to be disheartening but I don't think his showing will hurt him as much as Hillary's defeat did. Again, he is a pre-packaged populist and the Iowa voters saw right through the facade. He framed himself as a man of the people but was seen as a southern rich lawyer who has absolutely no idea how the other half lives. He just couldn't bust through and reach the common man like Obama did and the results showed that.
On the GOP side, Huckabee ran away with it but that's not all that surprising. Huck is a Baptist preacher and he appealed to the large Evangelical population in the state. He made his move at the right time and if, God forbid, Iowa had gone on for another month, I doubt he'd have held on. He's made many, many mistakes that have shown him to be not quite ready for prime time. His win essentially means nothing unless he can carry the momentum forward--something I don't think he can do.
For Romney, this was a disaster of epic proportions. The Huck whisper campaign against Mormonism had an effect and the public's lack of info on the religion hurt Romney in a slow, methodical fashion. It was a good political play by the Huck campaign and especially the oily Ed Rollins that worked to perfection even though it makes one want to take a shower because of the shadiness of it. Romney will bounce back in New Hampshire and has got to win in S. Carolina for any shot at it.
Thompson started late and polled pretty well. The constant "Fred is lazy" rhetoric may have harmed him more than thought and his non-religious approach may have affected him as well. He needed a third and got it. Now if he can get another third in NH and win in S. Carolina, the game is on and he could ride the wave into Nevada.
McCain made a decent showing after his precipitous slide in the midst of the immigration debate. I've never sen a candidate slide based on one single issue like McCain did and he's not fully recovered. It's imperative that he win in NH or at least place a very close second. If not, he's done as he'll not win SC.
So what did yesterday tell us? On the Dem side that Hillary's campaign has not succeeded in softening her image. Edwards' pandering populism is only appealing to a small amount of folks in the fly-over states and he's pinning his hopes on the South. Finally, Barack Obama is the real deal and he could grab the nomination if he keeps coasting along as smooth as he has.
On the GOP end we're no closer to figuring the race than we were yesterday. Huck won in a religious state and whether or not he can sustain that is still way up in the air.
On to New Hampshire.
Update: Stephen Green has some choice words for Iowa Republicans. Plus, much more at Memeorandum.
Predictions are difficult in this first caucus but I'll take a stab at it.
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