Thursday, January 03, 2008

And the Winner Is...

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Predictions are difficult in this first caucus but I'll take a stab at it.

On the Dem side I see Obama by 4-8% followed by Silky Edwards and Hillary a close third. Eight points may seem excessive but Obama has found his stride and has captured the attention of Iowa liberals more than Edwards I sense. Hillary's polarizing nature and general wishy-washiness didn't play well in the Hawkeye state and her third place showing could be considerably behind Obama. The general nature of the caucus process plays into the Obama camp.

On the GOP side it's a bit more difficult. I see it Huck and Romney
neck and neck with McCain and Fred behind them by 3-4%. Huck has stagnated while Romney has made a bit of a move. McCain and Fred are on the rise and Fred may just have enough of that down home appeal to win over undecided Iowans. Giuliani ceded this state months ago and we'll seee just how effective that strategy was in the next few weeks.

Expect Dodd and Richardson to head for the exits come tomorrow but not Fred.

Other predictions at HA where Allah has Romney and Obama winning.

BTW, I'll be happy when it's over and I don't have to explain to everyone I meet how the stupid cuacus process works.

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