Why Syria Matters

American intelligence officials are now saying that al-Qaeda was responsible for recent bombings in Syria designed to further incite regime opponents. They also claim that al-Qaeda is not new to the insurgency but has been part of the uprising since the beginning.

The vengeful part of me thinks this is excellent since Bashar Assad is now fighting violent insurgents in his own backyard after assisting insurgents battling the US in Iraq. Another part says that this could be the spark that truly sets the Middle East ablaze.

A year ago, we watched as Tunisia and Egypt overthrew despotic regimes with Libya doing the same--with NATO help--later in the year. We've also watched as the vacuum created by the downfall of the dictators has been filled by hard line Islamist's with a goal of changing these states into Muslim-only nations with Sharia being the law of the land. Al-Qaeda stands to benefit from these new regimes more than any other group. Zawahiri needs state sponsorship to continue his jihad and now he may just have it in northern Africa thanks to the disarray brought on by the uprisings.

But back to Syria. If the insurgency in Syria is successful and Assad is ousted, does anyone really believe that a moderate will take over? Does the Obama administration as a whole and Hillary Clinton in particular really expect that a new Syria will become a democracy and elect a secular leader? No, al-Qaeda will push for some group in the mold of the Muslim Brotherhood to ascend and asset them in doing so. Essentially we'd see a caliphate from Morocco to Pakistan (except Shiite-led Iran) led by like-minded Muslims who wish ill-will to the US and our allies.

And what about Israel? Can Israel idly sit by while Syria and Egypt continue down the road to becoming a Pakistan clone? Of course they can't and if Syria falls, it will not be long until Jordan and Lebanon do as well. Yes, Assad is a thug and a despot but he's also managed to keep Syria stable after his vile father died and went to hell. But he's a thug and despot that we know and he's predictable. The same when Mubarak led Egypt, we knew a thugocracy was better than theocracy. Israel will have to protect itself and no one with any understanding of the history of the region can honestly say that these new regimes will be peaceful towards their only non-Muslim neighbor. The conflagration that will arise is scary as hell to consider. A massed Islamic army would be very disconcerting to Israel and once the fighting starts, the US will be forced to aid Israel while China and Russia will reap huge benefits from double-dealing and arms deals.

Am I saying we should prop up Assad? No f-ing way. What I am saying is that we should learn from what happened in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and not be so quick to fan any flames against Boy Assad because that fire could burn us and our allies just as easily.

Exit questions: How are the Sunni al-Qaeda able to stir up so much trouble in Syria, which is a proxy of Shiite Iran? Has Iran lost that much clout in the Muslim world?

Shocker! Bombed Syrian Site Was Nuke Facility

Leave it to the Israeli's to give the world the finger and handle issues of concern to their national security on their own:

Samples taken from a Syrian site reportedly bombed by Israel on suspicion that it was a covert nuclear reactor contained traces of uranium combined with other elements that merit further investigation, diplomats said Monday.

The diplomats - who demanded anonymity because their information was confidential - said the uranium was processed and not in raw form, suggesting some kind of nuclear link.

Emphasis mine.

The IAEA tried their best to play down the significance of this but they had no choice but to release this info. This is the clearest indication that Syria was nearer to a nuke weapon than anyone would admit and shows once again just how feckless the UN offshoot IAEA really is.

Just as they did in 1981 when PM Menachem Begin--fearing the next government would be slow to act--attacked the Osiraq nuclear facility in Iraq, Israel had to act on intel showing Syria was nearing the makings of a nuclear warhead. They attacked (allegedly with US assistance or at least a nod from Bush) and took out what Boy Assad had in the planning stages.

Next on the agenda for the IAF is Iran. It will be a much harder nut to crack as the Iranians have been smarter in hiding their weapons and their overall program. Look for the attack to occur prior to Obama taking office.

Syrian TV Coverage of US Insurgent Strike

US forces crossed the border into Syria and liquidated the main al-Qaeda thug in that nation who has been assisting insurgents and supplying weapons across the border into Iraq.

Note that this is a Syrian broadcast as interpreted by the indispensable MEMRI so it is heavy on propaganda:



You can visit MEMRI by following the link on the right sidebar.

Update: Hmmmm...Did Boy Assad OK the US incursion across his eastern border?