How People Will Vote

The way I see it, both candidates have their core constituencies. Note I didn't say base because only one candidate has the entire base of their party but more on that later.

For Senator Obama, I see him winning nearly unanimously the following voter blocs:

African-Americans

Pro-abortion voters

College liberals

For Senator McCain I see him winning nearly unanimously the following:

Veterans

Pro-life voters

People who believe terrorism is still a major issue

Now here's where it gets tricky. Senator Obama has not shored up his base as one would suspect he has. Two key groups will either not vote or vote against him and they are two groups that he needs badly. Here's some thoughts on both:

Unions:
In the past, unions have been devout Democrats. Mostly, that was not just union leadership but the rank and file as well. this time, that's not the case and I know because I work with labor unions every day. They are strictly anti-Obama for the most part and the reason are myriad. Whether it be gun control, taxes or race, they are going into the booth and pulling that lever for anyone but Obama. In 2000 and 2004, I saw the way the various laborers unions such as equipment operators, laborers, dockbuilders, iron workers and electricians mobilized and got out the vote in that special union way. This time I'm just not seeing it.

Hillary supporters:
Hillary supporters are pissed. First they were upset and stunned that Democratic party leaders kicked Hillary to the curb and those she supported over the years shunned her for Obama. The use of the race card against Senator and former President Clinton had to hurt deeply. But no, they couldn't stop there, they then poured lemon juice and salt in the wound by picking the hapless Joe Biden and laughing at Senator Clinton and then having the chutzpah to force ask her to campaign for them. As Laura W. shows and I posted video of in the previous post, they are mad as hell.

I didn't even include Hispanics who have an ambivalence towards Obama and feel that he doesn't speak for them at all.

McCain has his base locked up however. His inclusion of Palin quieted the conservative element and she added much-needed life into a dull campaign. The GOP base will be out in force.

Now I'm not saying McCain will win but am saying that it's not going to turn out exactly as the media is hoping. Once folks get in the booth and they're in private with their own thoughts, anything can happen and I believe it will.