Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Is New Jersey in Play?

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According to the Real Clear Politics average the answer is no but there's more than meets the eye here. This is anecdotal but is telling as well.

NJ is a hard-core union state when it comes to the the trade such as carpenters, heavy equipment operators and laborers, you can't do any construction work non-union essentially and with hundreds of thousands of members, they have clout.

Generally this close to a presidential election, they all have stickers on their cars and hard hats for whoever the Dem candidate is and they actually have it in their contract that they have election day off to get out the vote in the only way unions no how. That said, this year I see no Obama stickers and have seen McCain stickers on hard hats. That would have been unthinkable previously.

I've always believed that about 25% of union workers voted GOP but this year it could be 80-85% and that would be a significant swing. Add to that the fact that the locals aren't organizing for Obama and you could be looking at a huge swing.

Again, anecdotal but plausible and losing NJ or another union state like NY would sink the Obama campaign.

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