Friday, January 11, 2008

Has Giuliani's Strategy Failed?

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It appears so. Several reports make me think that the late win strategy may have seriously hurt Giuliani. First, this report about his polling numbers in New York:

A new SurveyUSA poll now shows Rudy Giuliani in a tight fight with Sen. John McCain for Republican primary voters in his home state of New York. Giuliani edges McCain, 32% to 29%, and Mike Huckabee is third at 12%. The survey's margin of sampling error is 4.6%, making the race a statistical tie.
Now I know based on the polling meltdown in New Hampshire I should take these results with about a dump truck-full of salt but I would suspect that he is definitely trending downward. The strategy of waiting for Florida, New York and other major states seemed smart at first glance but his showing last night was so-so and he's not generating the hype that the engaged candidates have. That's a problem that may not be easily rectified.

This also makes me wonder about his financial situation:

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (AP) - About a dozen senior campaign staffers for Rudy Giuliani are forgoing their January paychecks, a sign of possible money trouble for the Republican presidential candidate and last year's national front- runner.

"We have enough money, but we could always use more money," said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign manager and one of those who now is working for free. "We want to make sure we have enough to win."

At the end of December, the campaign had $12.7 million cash on hand, $7 million of which could be used for the primary, DuHaime said Friday. He disputed the notion of a cash-strapped operation and said Giuliani continues to bring in money; several fundraisers are scheduled this week in Florida.
Not poor but not flush and it's quite a ways to Florida and a non-paid staff makes me concerned. As I said before, I reserve the right to change back over to Fred and based on his performance last night...

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