Friday, March 04, 2005

A Coming Syrian Revolution?

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Charles Krauthammer displays his usual insightful take on world events:

Moreover, the cedar revolution promises not only to liberate Lebanon but to transform the Middle East. Why? Because a forced Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon could bring down the Assad dictatorship. And changing Damascus would transform the region.
We are not talking about invading Syria. We have done enough invading and there is no need. If Bashar Assad loses Lebanon, his regime could be fatally weakened.
This is for two reasons: economics and psychology. Like all Soviet-style systems, the Syrian economy is moribund. It lives off Lebanese commerce and corruption. Take that away and a pillar of the Assad kleptocracy disappears. As does the psychological pillar. Dictatorships such as Assad's rule by fear, which is sustained by power and the illusion of power. Control of Lebanon is the centerpiece of that illusion. Its loss, at the hands of unarmed civilians no less, would be a deadly blow to the Assad mystique.


...This is no time to listen to the voices of tremulousness, indecision, compromise and fear. If we had listened to them two years ago, we would still be doing oil for food, no-fly zones and worthless embargoes. It is our principles that brought us to this moment by way of Afghanistan and Iraq. They need to guide us now -- through Beirut to Damascus.

President Bush is turning up the heat on the junior Assad as are internal intellectuals. I don't believe that he will be able to suppress this as his father did in Hama, it's too big. Granted, Hizbollah is a major player and will not go down without resistance, but even the dumbest of the mid-east tribal elements are seeing that the way to power in the changing region is through the ballot box.

Also in the region; you know the Iranians are scared when they, in conjunction with al-Jazeera, run this:

BEIRUT (Aljazeera) - The majority of the world's media believe Israel to be behind the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq al-Hariri and not Syria as some would like the world to believe. One analysis says, "Syrian President Bashar-el-Assad's regime is desperately seeking to avoid providing U.S. President George W. Bush with a pretext for war and has urgently sought improved relations with Washington."

But the Bush administration and the Israeli Likud party, which provides the ideological foundation for Bush's foreign policy in the Middle East, aren't interested in improving relations. What they want is the destabilization of Syria so they can go after Hizbollah simple because "Israel would welcome Syria's implosion, as it did Iraq's. Hence current Israeli efforts to press the White House and Congress to overthrow Syria's ally Iran-itself a leading target on America's Mideast hit list."

Emphasis mine. I'm sure the majority of the worlds media do indeed believe it was Israel, however this time, the facts point to Bashar Assad and they can't spin it back to Israel. Hell, things have changed so much, the Palestinians are even accusing Hizbollah as a mean to cover their ass.

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