Iowa is going to be closer than we think:

Gephardt and Dean are neck and neck, according to polls. But coming up fast on the outside is Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the onetime front-runner whose campaign stumbled badly in the early going.

Kerry is far behind Dean in New Hampshire, a state pundits once assumed to be a Kerry lock, so the Massachusetts senator is concentrating much of his energy and dwindling money in Iowa. He literally bet the house, taking out a mortgage on his Boston mansion to finance his prairie plunge.

Kerry backers are crossing their fingers that Dean and Gephardt tearing each other apart could give their man an opening to slip through to second place, or even first.

"It's going to go down to the wire and you can't count Kerry out," said veteran Democratic strategist Donna Brazile. "He's converting them in ones and twos and he has one of the best strategists on the ground."

I think Donna Brazile is a straight shooter on most issues, however, she is totally wrong about Kerry. Kerry has run the worst campaign since, well, the campaign Al Gore ran under the direction of Ms. Brazile in 2000.