Is It Time to Invade Pakistan?

It's a question that needs to be asked.

It would be an extreme action by every measure except the one that counts: national security. Should we invade Pakistan or at the very least encourage the Pakistani government to allow us to send troops as "peace keepers" to stem the rapid offensive of the Taliban on the capital? Perhaps utilizing our aircraft to selectively bomb the Talibani militants and gain the Pakistani forces time and distance would be a play we have available.

Allah points to two stories about the Taliban insurrection and the potential for them to take Islamabad. One from the Daily Mail but more importantly one from Roggio:

The Taliban takeover of Haripur would put the Taliban on the doorstep of Islamabad and would also put two major nuclear facilities at risk.

Haripur borders the Margala Hills, a region in the Islamabad Capital Territory. Haripur also borders the Punjab districts of Attock and Rawalpindi.

Attock hosts two major nuclear facilities in Pakistan: the Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex and the Kamra (Minhas) Airbase. The Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex host three sites where nuclear weapons and components are stored and assembled and aircraft and missiles are modified for use in nuclear attacks. The nearby Kamra Airbase is thought to host attack aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

Rawalpindi is the "garrison" city for Pakistan's military. The city hosts the headquarters of the Army and Air Force, and several nuclear weapons research facilities are also located there.

During 2007, The Taliban and al Qaeda conducted several suicide attacks at Pakistani facilities that are thought to house nuclear weapons and research facilities. It is unclear if the suicide attacks were a demonstration of the groups' capacity to penetrate security at sensitive locations or merely attacks on targets of opportunity.

There is no way we can allow the Taliban in concert with al-Qaeda to take over the nuke facilities in Pakistan. One would hope that the Pakistanis would have moved the weapons after the previous attacks and it is imperative that the Obama administration find out if they were indeed secreted out to another location. If not, we must press strongly for providing assistance and if they decline we must insist in the strongest possible terms. If that doesn't work, an invasion may need to be considered. A nuclear al-Qaeda is the worst of all possible scenarios. A tight blockade of the entire Pakistani coastline would be a requisite action and stopping and boarding all ships would be the only way we could ensure that a nuke was not smuggled out the country. An action along the northern frontier to prevent transport out through one of the "stans" or west through Iran would require a major effort.

I'm not even adding in that Islamabad is dangerously close to Jammu and Kashmir--the disputed territories--and India is already on edge after the attacks in Mumbai that have ISI fingerprints all over the place.

Add to that the heightened state of tension between India and Pakistan and you're looking at a scenario that could see all-out war in the region with Iran and other Muslim states jumping in to assist Pakistan while we would have no option but to support the Indians.

This is the nightmare scenario playing out in full color and we have to act decisively and with resolve. If the Pakistanis cannot stop this onslaught, we may well have to consider what our options are and what can best ensure our national security. I fear Obama is ill-equipped in both advisers and foreign policy experience to deal with this situation.

Update: To be clear, I'm not advocating that we invade. I'm terrified of an Indian response, which, as Allah points out would lead to civil war with the Taliban leading one side. I'm saying bluntly that this is critical and we may have to make a quick decision on what our options are. Our men and women in uniform have done excellent work in Iraq and Afghanistan but this is a new phase that is crucial and may well decide the WOT.