Thursday, December 13, 2007

Is Fred Thompson Making a Move?

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It's not showing up in the polls yet, but it appears that Fred Thompson is gearing up to make this interesting.

Hear me out on this. Thompson waited forever to get in the race and didn't make a splash at all when he finally did announce. Since that time he's been seemingly going through the motions and losing support while simultaneously being portrayed as lazy by the media.

Here's my thinking, we saw that the very moment Huckabee started winning polls, the scrutiny increased ten-fold. Every past action and statement was unearthed and he was instantly put on the defensive, a position he's still in. Romney had the goods on him and the media did the rest by resurrecting his statements on HIV-infected people and the Dumond rape/murder case among other issues.

Now juxtapose that with Thompson, he knows that Romney and Giuliani have dirt on him but have not needed to use it yet as he's not been in the top tier for months. He knows that as soon as he makes a move and appears to have a shot in any of the early states, they'll turn on him with both barrels blazing so he waits until it's closer to the start of the primaries to turn on the charm and rev up his campaign. The dirt they have would not have the desired effect it did on Huck because it would be only days and not a month before the voting begins. Think about it, it was not one single issue that has tarnished Huck's campaign, it was the daily barrage of Dumond, religious smears and the HIV issue that had a cumulative effect. The time for a full-court press will not be available should they have to turn and focus on Thompson.

Yesterday was a good start with him winning the debate by most counts and we'll see if he makes a move. If he can have a decent showing in Iowa and Hew Hampshire and turn around and win in South Carolina, he may well look like a genius by not exposing himself to the electorate too early and playing his campaign low key until the time was right to make a move.

The opposite of that is that he may have waited too long and would look foolish if he comes in fifth in all those states. Time will tell but I think we just may be seeing the candidate we hoped Thompson would be emerging.

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