I'm just an American who has visited Australia exactly once for a total of three days so I have little understanding of the political situation in that beautiful country. For that, I read Tim Blair (the guy who inspired me to start this blog nearly five years ago) who has given me an increased understanding of the voting preferences of different regions, etc. For the record, I still don't understand what the hell the guy is talking about with cricket but that's for another post.
Anyway, John Howard has been in office for 11-years and this year it seems he has some serious competition from Kevin Rudd, the opposition leader. Again, I may not know the specifics of Aussie politics but I do know polling and a Howard win this weekend may not be as much a long shot as it was a month ago.
Check out these numbers (link in PDF):
Labor (the party of Rudd) has a 5% lead over the coalition (Howard, the conservative, is in the Liberal Party (?) but leads the Coalition), down from 14% just one month ago. That's to be expected in any election as it approaches, yet look at the numbers on certain topics:
Howard's performance number has increased and a majority now are satisfied with his leadership. Rudd's numbers are better but he is not the national leader, he's akin to Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid I would assume and thus his policies have not been scrutinized as much as Howard's.
Rudd beats Howard when the question is who would make a better Prime Minister but again, those numbers have drawn much closer than a month ago.
Finally, Howard destroys Rudd on national security and the economy while Rudd wins hands down on education and health care. I would guess that just like in the US, national priorities will dictate who wins. It hasn't been all that long since the Bali nightclub bombings in which 202 people were killed. The majority murdered were Australians and young ones at that. I have no idea if the Australian left has been as diligent about repressing the memory of the bombings as the American Left has been about 9/11 but I would imagine that it would have some bearing on the election. For the record, I was in Bali in 1992 and was at the location of the bombings ten years before they occurred so I have strong feelings about that act of terror and the people it affected.
Anyway, John Howard has been in office for 11-years and this year it seems he has some serious competition from Kevin Rudd, the opposition leader. Again, I may not know the specifics of Aussie politics but I do know polling and a Howard win this weekend may not be as much a long shot as it was a month ago.
Check out these numbers (link in PDF):
Labor (the party of Rudd) has a 5% lead over the coalition (Howard, the conservative, is in the Liberal Party (?) but leads the Coalition), down from 14% just one month ago. That's to be expected in any election as it approaches, yet look at the numbers on certain topics:
Howard's performance number has increased and a majority now are satisfied with his leadership. Rudd's numbers are better but he is not the national leader, he's akin to Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid I would assume and thus his policies have not been scrutinized as much as Howard's.
Rudd beats Howard when the question is who would make a better Prime Minister but again, those numbers have drawn much closer than a month ago.
Finally, Howard destroys Rudd on national security and the economy while Rudd wins hands down on education and health care. I would guess that just like in the US, national priorities will dictate who wins. It hasn't been all that long since the Bali nightclub bombings in which 202 people were killed. The majority murdered were Australians and young ones at that. I have no idea if the Australian left has been as diligent about repressing the memory of the bombings as the American Left has been about 9/11 but I would imagine that it would have some bearing on the election. For the record, I was in Bali in 1992 and was at the location of the bombings ten years before they occurred so I have strong feelings about that act of terror and the people it affected.
Here's to hoping that Howard wins another term as we have several world leaders who have good working relationships with President Bush. Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, Stephen Harper and John Howard make a formidable team on the world stage. Australia has been one of our most reliable allies throughout the years and Howard has been a major reason for that. Rudd may continue that policy, especially if he sees what Gordon Brown--a man who has not always been as pro-American as Tony Blair was--is currently dealing with in Great Britain.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment