Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Turning Out the Base

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Chris Bowers has been looking at the polls and is getting a bit worried it seems:

However, I simply cannot imagine any way for Democrats to win this election if Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats, as the Gallup poll LV model must undoubtedly show them doing. If we hold a nine-point edge among registered voters, than we should also hold a nine-point advantage among likely voters. If we fail to do so, then we have utterly failed in our field operations, our message, and our media strategy. You cannot find a nine-point nation swing within Independents. According to 2004 turnout levels, that would require moving 17% of Independents out of the Republican column and into the Democratic column. According to 2006 turnout levels, where Independent turnout will probably be even lower, an even larger swing will probably be required.

The Republicans will definitely turn out, that's a given. Democrat turnout has been sketchy at best and there's no issue that is so galvanizing as to bring out the Black vote in large numbers. That has been a huge issue for the donks. The Hispanic vote may be increased but the Republican base will counter most of that.

It's increasingly looking like the GOP will hold on and keep at least the Senate, House or both.

This is the poll that has Bowers and other Dems worried. It shows likely voters deadlocked with regard who they will vote for come November.

Spin it as they will, the polls have been trending up for Republicans and the president at a steady pace.

Update (9/20): Kean now leads Menendez among likely voters according to Quinnipiac:

New Jersey State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican challenger, leads Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez 48 - 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters, including leaners, in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 6 percent remain undecided.

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