"Elbow Room"

Stephen Green has a good post on Germany and Hitler's quest for living space. It got me thinking about modern countries that require some extra space. Of course, the first two that come to mind are India and China, both with over a billion citizens. India can't really expand in any direction, at least militarily. They can't even settle the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan militarily.

That leaves China. China, and India for that matter, were not considered a major threat while they were primarily socialist. They've both made great strides towards a capitalist mindset, not the western type though. The Chinese still cling to the communist ideology and take all the foreign trade they can handle. It's an interesting juxtaposition for sure. Where would China choose to expand? Mongolia is a given and is largely ethnic Chinese from what I have read. Kind of like Germany and Czechoslavakia in the 1930's. That would be easy. What about the 'Stans (Pakistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyztan, and Kazakhstan)? That would give them alot of land and the military defense of each would be minimal. Unless the Russians decide that they don't like the Chinese agression. Do the Russians have the military and the backbone to go at it with China? Definitely not. The Russian military is a shadow of the Soviet version, no navy to speak of, limited airforce, and an army that is not tough enough to evoke the spirit of the Red Army of years past.

So the Chinese could simultaneously take back Taiwan and move west at the same time. Depending on the backbone of the future US President, America could get dragged in by defending Taipei as a part of several treaties, or negotiate while China moved into the 'Stans. Would America risk WWIII (or IV or V depending on how you view the cold war and the war against terror) against a well trained and well equipped nuclear power? To save some third world territory with no real resources? I think not.

Several authors have warned us about the coming threat from China including Bill Gertz. We are arming a potential foe on a daily basis and providing them with hard currency to invent, develop, or buy every weapon they would need. Would the Chinese risk the unique place it has established itself in the world of trade and manufacturing? Perhaps. A smarter man than me may well see a major paradigm shift that would usher in a softer-line government, I foresee another Tiananmen Square incident.

More later.