Tuesday, June 01, 2004

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House Of Saud Set To Crumble?

Is Saudi Arabia about to fall into civil war? Perhaps:

The al-Khobar slaughter was the second terrorist attack that killed foreigners in a month, and once again it came in a town where expatriates supply much of the technical expertise that keeps the Saudi Arabian oil flowing. The foreigners are starting to leave, as the terrorists intended - but that could soon force cuts in the flow of oil. Lots of native-born Saudis work in the oil industry by now, but key technical sectors still depend on foreigners.

The main problem in Saudi Arabia is demographic: its native-born population has doubled to 18 million in the past twenty years, while its per capita income has almost exactly halved. Thirty percent of the adult male population is unemployed, and 400,000 extra young men enter the workforce each year with little hope of finding a job.

Even a democracy would be in trouble with these numbers, and Saudi Arabia is no democracy. The average monthly stipend for a run-of-the-mill prince in the Saudi ruling family is $30,000 - and there are between 7,000 and 15,000 princes. (The exact number is a state secret.) In all, the royal family skims off an estimated 40% of oil income before it reaches the government, and most people in Arabia know that. They are not happy about it.


There's alot of talk of the regime being toppled.

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