bin-Laden Miscalculates

James Taranto today:

Many of these decisions arose from the natural American tendency not to meddle in the affairs of other nations, especially at the cost of American lives. But bin Laden saw them as signs of weakness and cowardice, which emboldened him to undertake the atrocity of Sept. 11. His miscalculation consisted in failing to anticipate that mass murder on that scale, on American soil, would provoke a very different response. After all, we can withdraw from Somalia, but we can't very well withdraw from New York.

It's worth noting, though, that bin Laden, or whoever is calling the shots these days, made a similar calculation before the 3/11 bombings in Madrid, and this time it proved accurate. Spanish voters responded not with a renewed vigilance but by electing a new government that promised to give the terrorists exactly what they wanted: withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq.

The Madrid attack, in contrast with Sept. 11, had little possible downside for al Qaeda. Even had the Spanish not responded in such a craven fashion, it wouldn't have made much difference in military terms. Spain, like most other European countries, simply doesn't have anything like the military might of the U.S. Whereas America seemed weak before Sept. 11, our European allies (and our European "allies") actually are weak.

The implication is chilling: American resolve after Sept. 11 gives al Qaeda a powerful incentive to attack European targets, the better to cause political headaches for Washington by dividing us from countries that should be our allies. Is it any wonder that Europeans long for a less aggressive American approach to terrorists?

Indeed.