Is New Jersey now a swing state? Perhaps:

See Fritz Schrank on McGreevy's plan to raise the tax rate on people who earn over $500k by 29 percent. It's positioned as a "millionaire" surcharge (though it's only halfway to a million) and you may think that everybody else in the state who earns less would say, "F the rich." But no. It's still a tax increase. New Jersey hates tax increases. It hates tax increasers more. And they're smart enough to see that if the rich leave the state, that will have an impact on taxes, jobs, and real estate.

Two words: Jim Florio. As someone living in the Garden State, I can see Bush winning a close contest. The northeastern part of the state is heavily union and will vote Kerry, however, the southern part of the state is a different story. There's alot of people who do make a half million a year, or at least plan to be making it soon. Plus NJ will have a budget surplus this year of $700 million making this tax seem dubious. The unemployemnt rate in NJ is among the lowest in the nation and the economic recovery was seen here faster than other parts of the country, so the economy is out as an issue for Kerry.