tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post1186189482703241106..comments2023-11-03T07:06:18.302-04:00Comments on ENVIRONMENTAL REPUBLICAN: Oil Bubble About to Pop?Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16009365546781588250noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-39699395668181485402008-05-20T13:50:00.000-04:002008-05-20T13:50:00.000-04:00The smartest thing I have read on this blog is tha...The smartest thing I have read on this blog is that when everybody is saying the fundamentals have changed, we have reached bubble territory. Fundamentals don't change in the course of a few years, they change over time, and im talking decades of moderate change. Oil didnt evaporate and demand didnt peak in the course of a couple of years. <BR/><BR/>China and India will begin to moderate oil Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-37371543522956195352008-04-28T10:54:00.000-04:002008-04-28T10:54:00.000-04:00Today I feel is the day that oil prices begin to c...Today I feel is the day that oil prices begin to collapse. The Iranian boat shooting was just another speculative driven overhyped event. Watch for the drop to begin slowly then increase in speed and duration. Goodbye speculators, the day is here!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-841194073224272182008-04-18T14:04:00.000-04:002008-04-18T14:04:00.000-04:00Watch for a 10 to 20% one-day drop in the price of...Watch for a 10 to 20% one-day drop in the price of oil. That will be the beginning of the end. here is no justifyiable reason to have higher oil and gas prices than two years ago. Inventories adecuate and demand for gas is even decreasing. Not so long ago, refinery capacity was at 94%. Now it's at 81%. That's a 14% drop in production and subsequently, there should be a drop in oil imports. That'sAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-79504381401548217672008-04-04T12:16:00.000-04:002008-04-04T12:16:00.000-04:00The "bubble" will burst when China can no longer s...The "bubble" will burst when China can no longer subsidize their energy markets. <BR/><BR/>As long as they are willing to lose money on oil to keep the economy bulldozing along we will see the bubble continue to grow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-16957249785753416802008-03-21T13:45:00.000-04:002008-03-21T13:45:00.000-04:00Anyone else notice the irony of how, in his/her pe...Anyone else notice the irony of how, in his/her petty and condescending bashing of America, "anony mouse" demonstrates how "US centric" he/she is?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-70038064407946702312008-03-17T21:44:00.000-04:002008-03-17T21:44:00.000-04:00Is it possible to speak about INCREASING FUEL EFFI...Is it possible to speak about INCREASING FUEL EFFICIENCY?<BR/><BR/>I really don't understand how we can justify driving vehicles that get 15 MPH - the same as cars from the 70's.<BR/><BR/>Do we still talk on CB radios in our cars?<BR/><BR/>If we get off the waste tip we can solve a lot of our problems quite easily - we need to reframe the debate and promote greater efficiency.<BR/><BR/>Please Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-57767088104089830252008-03-13T18:50:00.000-04:002008-03-13T18:50:00.000-04:00The price for a barrel of crude oil should be in e...The price for a barrel of crude oil should be in euros, not in dollars.<BR/>That should ease things down in the financial markets.<BR/>The EU already seems to do so at: http://www.energy.eu/#pricesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-4945684517671121352008-03-12T17:50:00.000-04:002008-03-12T17:50:00.000-04:00some of the earlier posters ridiculing this argume...some of the earlier posters ridiculing this argument because it's been around since 2004 are missing the point.<BR/><BR/>Economists started predicting the housing crash back in 2001, but the bubble continued to grow for about 5 years or so until it burst.<BR/><BR/>If there is an oil bubble, the same thing will happen. The correction may not come this spring, but it will come eventually.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-27061585842231882532008-03-09T23:43:00.000-04:002008-03-09T23:43:00.000-04:00"We humans burn about 2/3rds of the oil to make el..."We humans burn about 2/3rds of the oil to make electricity NOT to power transportation."<BR/><BR/>No. About 25% of oil is used for electricity and process heat and it's already well under way of being phased out(usually in favour of coal).<BR/><BR/>"The Chinese are preparing to go big on nuclear pebble bed fusion reactors."<BR/><BR/>Fission, not fusion. Pebble beds are still experimental and theAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-29571783716941897122008-03-09T22:35:00.000-04:002008-03-09T22:35:00.000-04:00After OilBy David Fleming (C) Prospect Magazine, N...After Oil<BR/>By David Fleming <BR/>(C) Prospect Magazine, November 2000 <BR/><BR/>"Only one country has the potential for a serious increase in output, on a scale which could make a difference. The bad news is: that country is Iraq. Iraq's oil geology is not fully explored, but there are some well-informed guesses. One estimate is that there are 110 billion barrels there--equal to more than Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-74396439628361528522008-03-09T20:15:00.000-04:002008-03-09T20:15:00.000-04:00Just a though to all those in the peak oil crowd. ...Just a though to all those in the peak oil crowd. Historically, demand has fallen in the face of higher prices (circa 1976-85) but it typically comes with a lag effect of 4-5 years. Based upon the massive price increases in 2005, expect significant demand destruction to begin between 2010-2015 for the next 5-10 or more years. Large price increases take time to filter to the consumer (hence the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-17351537695370012008-03-09T16:54:00.000-04:002008-03-09T16:54:00.000-04:00$100/barrel oil is cheap. It will go much higher. ...$100/barrel oil is cheap. It will go much higher. What the US and our allies want is access to oil. Thanks to the Sanctions,Iraq's oil fields were virtually untapped. It is the second largest supply in the world because of the embargos. China was making strong overtures to Sadam. The US could not allow China to secure rights to the oil. We cannot defeat China in a War, Nor can they defeat the USAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-10660629542026795052008-03-08T22:05:00.000-05:002008-03-08T22:05:00.000-05:00Two points:1. China is experiencing a recession. A...Two points:<BR/>1. China is experiencing a recession. A strong Yuan is making their products less competitive on the world market, and manufacturers are looking to places like Indonesia and Viet Nam for cheaper goods. Because of this, their demand for oil is moderating.<BR/>2. We invaded Iraq for oil? Do you have any clue how <B>stupid</B> that statement is? If it was all about oil, THEN WHY Don Phttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00011617857167857519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-21902920778935954492008-03-08T19:49:00.000-05:002008-03-08T19:49:00.000-05:00Dear friends.....Hubbert's peak is real and it is ...Dear friends.....Hubbert's peak is real and it is here. We are now in a time of resource procurment and protection. China is actively seeking and securing oil fields. They are building their militay to protect their interests.<BR/><BR/>We invaded Iraq for the oil (and I agree with the decision!)....and we will not leave in spite of what that fool Obama says. We have no choice. No choice.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-89180057277133786862008-03-08T08:19:00.000-05:002008-03-08T08:19:00.000-05:00re: anonymous, you wrote:the 4 week moving avg end...re: anonymous, you wrote:<BR/><I>the 4 week moving avg ending of gasoline demand is down a whopping .85% YoY. However, national gasoline prices are up 26% (using the March 3 price report.).</I><BR/><BR/>Interesting data - thanks. But I read something totally different.<BR/><BR/>Demand destruction isn't linear.<BR/><BR/>I'm sure you didn't mean to imply that it takes a 26% increase in price to lewy14https://www.blogger.com/profile/07524380685282662887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-36702086409071327892008-03-07T18:41:00.000-05:002008-03-07T18:41:00.000-05:00First, let's throw some data into the article's cl...First, let's throw some data into the article's claim that "Americans have been using less fuel of late and that alone should have reduced prices by several dollars a barrel." According to the EIA http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html the 4 week moving avg ending of gasoline demand is down a whopping .85% YoY. However, national gasoline prices are up 26% (using the March 3Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-80709406572767944592008-03-07T16:45:00.000-05:002008-03-07T16:45:00.000-05:00I would highly recommend Dan Yergin's "The Prize" ...I would highly recommend Dan Yergin's "The Prize" to anyone who would venture an opinion on the price of oil.<BR/><BR/>World demand will not continue to increase in the face of rising prices and it certainly does make sense to consider the 'cost' of the specs in this market. <BR/><BR/>And to the anonymous writer who penned "The arguement [sic] for a drastic reduction in the price of oil has been Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-68423111665658728222008-03-07T16:18:00.000-05:002008-03-07T16:18:00.000-05:00I disagree with the article. Speculators have ver...I disagree with the article. Speculators have very little influence in this market. <BR/><BR/>Overall demand is still strong. The US recession may dampen demand in the US, but worldwide demand continues to rise. Also, the US is about to enter into its prolonged summer driving season. Hurricane season will be here soon, too, and that will potentially threaten oil supplied from the Gulf of Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-40143528821397818752008-03-07T16:15:00.000-05:002008-03-07T16:15:00.000-05:00It is simple supply and demand. Supply is not keep...It is simple supply and demand. Supply is not keeping up with demand.<BR/><BR/>Face it people, oil supplies are finite. Is there more in the ground? Of course, but its harder and harder to get.....and demand from China and India will continue to grow. Oil Prices should stabilize at $120 per barrel for the short term...then expect the price to go farther north.<BR/><BR/>We better begin bringing Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-84190065740136899842008-03-07T14:29:00.000-05:002008-03-07T14:29:00.000-05:00Re: Keith at 1:30pm.Concerning the revaluation of ...Re: Keith at 1:30pm.<BR/><BR/>Concerning the revaluation of reserves about which he wrote - A crucial fact to remember is that 'estimated reserves' is an economic calculation, not a physical calculation. Estimated reserves increase as the price increases. Greatly simplified, estimated reserves are calculated based upon what amounts of petroleum can be produced profitably at a given price. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-90988629917412290532008-03-07T13:41:00.000-05:002008-03-07T13:41:00.000-05:00People, think long-term, not short-term. I WANT oi...People, think long-term, not short-term. <BR/><BR/>I WANT oil to hit $120/barrel, and stay above that level. That is good for America in the long run. It will force technological innovation and also force the petrodictators to overextend themselves and burn the candle at both ends. Chavez, Iran, Putin, etc. will be in a similar situation as Americans who bought houses on zero-down adjustable Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-7427736451990275812008-03-07T13:30:00.000-05:002008-03-07T13:30:00.000-05:00What most people, including commenters here, don't...What most people, including commenters here, don't understand is that oil companies are required by accounting laws to re-value all their oil holdings on a quarterly basis to current market prices. This is called "mark to market" accounting. It used to be optional but after Enron/Sarbanes-Oxley it became mandatory.<BR/><BR/>Oil companies report their "reserves" of known oil they have rights to,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-26648075550560559972008-03-07T13:20:00.000-05:002008-03-07T13:20:00.000-05:00"Not only is the bubble psychological, so is the '...<I>"Not only is the bubble psychological, so is the 'pain at the pump.'" </I> <BR/><BR/>What if you have a 15 mpg average car, commute 100 miles a day and like to have a coffee and donut every day? Is the pain at the pump still just psychological?<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.enormousincongruities.com" REL="nofollow">incongruities</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-86397028480790047582008-03-07T13:06:00.000-05:002008-03-07T13:06:00.000-05:00Oil prices will stay high as long as we feel ent...Oil prices will stay high as long as we feel entitled to lock up our coal, ban oil drilling anywhere a bird might get dirty and litigate new refineries and nuclear generating plants off the drawing board.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4066256.post-60890538013238015782008-03-07T13:01:00.000-05:002008-03-07T13:01:00.000-05:00Free markets with a strong military posture to def...Free markets with a strong military posture to defend our interests is all that is required to supply us with more than enough energy at affordable prices. Oil replaced whale oil and in time it will be replaced with technological advances, if markets are allowed to operate to unleash human genius and productivity.<BR/><BR/>Of course this would not allow the social engineering of those helpless johnnycwesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10746767404567772212noreply@blogger.com